The best back-to-back returns since the 1990s for global equity markets with the MSCI index returning 29.8% in 2024 on the back of 21.6% in 2023. This was largely driven by U.S. stocks which now constitute 67% of the MSCI, and in particular the ‘Magnificent 7’ companies.
Investing is more than data; it requires anticipating future trends. This is why relying on past performance is often risky. Generational shifts, rising geopolitical tensions, and evolving consumer behaviours demand excellence in trend spottng. Luxury goods, where China’s rising affluent class is undergoing significant changes in spending preferences is a case in point. Whilst luxury has historically been a secular growth story, we believe that more nuanced factors are at play, making active stock picking essential.
A quiet transformation is underway in global consumer behaviour, reshaping entire industries from retail to healthcare. The growing humanisation of pets is turning dogs, cats, and even hamsters into full-fledged family members— complete with personalised diets, fashion wardrobes, and tech-enabled care. This emotional shift is more than just a social quirk; it is a powerful megatrend redefining spending priorities and creating lucrative, high-growth investment opportunities.
Observing where the world is moving to is crucial to future-proofing portfolios and generating strong consistent returns. Demographic and technological shifts are rapidly changing consumer buying patterns. While understanding numbers is important, grasping human behaviour delivers deeper insights. Diligently analyzing these shifts and their implications helps identify future winners.
The era of blindly betting on Western brands to tap into China’s burgeoning consumer market is over. Once considered no-brainers, global titans like L’Oreal, Nike and Starbucks are finding their footng increasingly precarious. Despite the allure of its growing middle class the dynamics at play are more nuanced than ever.
